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SSAT 51st Annual Meeting Abstracts

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Long Term Conditional Survival in Esophageal Cancer: a Seer Database Analysis
Attila Dubecz*, Rudolf J. Stadlhuber, Hubert J. Stein
Surgery, Klinikum Nürnberg, Nürnberg, Germany

Background: For esophageal cancer patients 5-year survival rates are generally reported in the literature. It is not clear however, that in patients who already survived a certain period of time what probabilities of surviving an additional 5 years apply. METHODS: Clinical stage, surgical and non-surgical treatments, age, and race of patients with cancer of the esophagus were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry (1988-2004). SEER identified a total of 25,306 patients with esophageal cancer (average age: 65.0 years, male-to-female ratio: 3.1). Overall five and ten-year survival of patients through all stages and the relative conditional survival (CS) of patients surviving an additional 5 years after already surviving 0-5 years was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. CS was defined as: CS(z|x) is the probability of surviving an additional z years, given that the person already survived for x years. Multivariate analysis was used to examine determinants of 10 year survival; variables tested included age, gender, race, marriage status, histology and surgical therapy. RESULTS: Five and ten-year overall survival of the study population was 13.2/7.6 percent, respectively. Relative conditional 5-year survival of patients surviving 0-5 years by SEER stage is reported in Table 1. Patients with distant metastases have more than 23 times higher chance of surviving the second than the first five years after diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Overall long-term survival with esophageal cancer is poor, but patients surviving 5 years after diagnosed with esophageal cancer have more than fifty-percent chance of surviving until 10 years. The largest gain in conditional survival are seen in patients with advanced disease.

(years)0 1 2 3 4 5
In Situ 60.6 66.5 68 74.9 74.9 69
Localized 25.4 37.1 44.9 56.3 56.6 57.5
Regional 12.8 23.3 36.3 46.0 51.9 55.7
Distant 2.6 13.3 27.7 42.1 55.4 60.8


Back to Program | 2010 Program and Abstracts Overview | 2010 Posters

 

 
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